Aviation Experts Warned GPS Spoofing Could Cause Disaster. Then, the Azerbaijan Airlines Crash Killed 38.
Blinded by GPS spoofing and possibly struck by Russian missiles, the crew aboard doomed Azerbaijan Airlines flight heroically fought until the last moment, saving 29 lives.
On December 25, an Azerbaijan Airlines jet bound for Chechnya suffered catastrophic failure and crashed in Kazakhstan, killing at least 38 of 67 passengers. New transcripts reveal the flight’s harrowing final moments and the crew’s extraordinary efforts to land safely.
As evidence of the tragedy emerges, there is a growing consensus that Russian anti-aircraft missile struck the plane. Azerbaijan Airlines confirmed1 that “external interference” was responsible, though stopped short of blaming Russia directly.
Officials from the U.S.2, Ukraine3, and Azerbaijani President Aliyev4 believe the jet was shot down by Russia’s air defenses after mistaking the civilian plane for a Ukrainian drone.
At the time, Russia was responding to two Ukrainian drone strikes5 near Grozny.
The EU’s Aviation Safety Agency issued a safety warning that flying in Russian air space “ poses a high risk to [civilian] flight operations, as demonstrated by the incident involving Azerbaijan Airlines flight J@8243.”
Meanwhile, Russia’s explanation of why Flight J28243 crashed has shifted from heavy fog, to bird strike, to finally admitting that Russian air defenses were at the time active in response to Ukrainian drones flying near Grozny.
An investigation of the flight’s black box data is still being conducted by a multi-national team of aviation experts in Brazil.6
As rumors swirl around what exactly caused flight J28243 to divert across the Caspian Sea before crashing, let’s use Open Source Intelligence to analyze eyewitness video and leaked transcripts of the crew’s communications with air traffic control to construct a timeline of what happened.
Russian and Ukrainian media publish identical transcripts of the doomed plane’s final hour
VChK-OGPU7 is an independent group that investigates Russian government corruption. In December 2024, the group published alleged transcripts of the doomed flight crew’s conversation with Grozny air traffic control as they experienced a series of catastrophic failures.
In January 2025, an identical—but more comprehensive—version of the transcripts was published by Russian media outlet Baza.io.8 I believe both sides publishing the same transcripts corroborates their authenticity, making it the best insight into what went wrong until the official black box report comes out.
For an estimated flight path and timeline, check out this map I created.
1. GPS jamming and spoofing interfered with navigation and communication
As the aircraft approached Grozny, both GPS systems failed, leading the pilot to request verbal landing directions from air traffic control. The radio communication was severely disrupted, and radar contact was lost. The decision was made to return to Baku.
The Live GPS Spoofing and Jamming Tracker Map shows heavy GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny at the time of the flight.
With everything going wrong, the pilot decided to fly back to Baku.
What’s GPS spoofing?
GPS spoofing is a new kind of electronic attack on aircraft navigation systems employed by militaries in the Middle East, Russia and the Black Sea, with newer spoofing attacks observed near North Korea and the India-Pakistan border.
In the first half of 2024, GPS spoofing attacks increased by 400% worldwide.
How does it work? GPS spoofing systems broadcast fake coordinates that overwhelm authentic GPS signals from space, causing aircraft to believe they are at the new spoofed position. While GPS spoofing alone won’t make a plane fall out of the sky, “GPS spoofing puts the aircraft into a significantly degraded state,”9 heightening risk and increasing the chances of critical failure.
Russia has escalated GPS spoofing attacks in the region since early 2024 in an attempt to counter Ukraine’s drones. GPS spoofing has become a daily event impacting civilian aircraft—and now, the aviation community’s fears that GPS spoofing could lead to mass casualty have come true.
At 8:16 am Moscow time, something struck the Azerbaijan Airlines jet. This map shows the estimated location (bullseye) when the plane was struck—roughly 43 km north of Grozny.10
2. 8:16 am - Possible Missile Strike
At this critical moment, the crew reported a "bird strike" and “explosions under cockpit seats,” but evidence suggests that the aircraft may have been hit by a missile from Russian air defenses. For example, the aircraft never experienced engine failure, the only logical result of a bird strike.
The explosion caused significant damage, likely involving the oxygen tanks located in the forward cargo hold nearby the cockpit.
This is the moment when Russian air defense missiles possibly hit the aircraft.
Passenger video shows damage to the airplane’s skin from an external impact.
Source: Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, X.com December 26, 2024
Oxygen masks are deployed as passenger shows damage to the fuselage mid-flight.
Source: Channel News Asia11
Holes in the body of the plane at the crash site12, 13
3. 8:19 - Cabin Pressure Problems
Following the explosion, cabin pressure spiked and then rapidly de-pressurized, consistent with overpressure from the blast. The crew lost complete hydraulic control, relying solely on throttle adjustments for steering.
4. 8:52 - Passengers lose consciousness as oxygen runs out due to explosion.
As the situation deteriorated, the crew reported that oxygen was running out.
Translated from Russian:
8:52:46 E:
”Oxygen is running out in the passenger cabin. So, an oxygen tank exploded there, I think. And, that means there is a smell of fuel. And, some passengers... that means they are losing consciousness.”
5. With multiple system failures, pilot crossed the Caspian Sea for an emergency landing in Aktau, Kazakhstan. 29 lives were saved by the crew’s heroic effort.
Flightradar24 published a mind-boggling view of Flight J28243’s courageous attempt at an emergency landing in Aktau.14 With failing controls, the plane’s vertical speed fluctuated more than 100 times in the final hour of flight.15 Thanks to the incredible skill of the pilot and crew, 29 people survived the crash.
Former pilot Dan Bub told Newsweek:
”These pilots didn't just fly the plane—they fought it every step of the way. What they achieved is nothing short of miraculous."
How GPS Spoofing Directly Contributed to the Crash
So would the plane have crashed without GPS spoofing?
Nearly an hour elapsed between when the aircraft first experienced GPS spoofing (7:25 am Moscow time) and being struck by the missile (8:16 am). Based on my estimate, they were more that 35 km off-course from where the plane should have been on its approach to Grozny.
Just 30 minutes before the fatal missile strike, the plane’s GPS believed it was over 160 km away from its actual position, and over 60 km off course from a normal approach.
From the Russian military’s perspective, they would have seen
unidentified aircraft
unexpected location
erratic flight pattern (circling and changing direction while attempting to land)
high alert due to drone threats in the area
Friend or Foe Identification signals may have been impacted
While not excusable, it’s easy to see how GPS spoofing heavily contributed to the events that resulted in J28243’s tragic crash.
The Tragic Intersection of Cyber Warfare and Civilian Aviation
The Azerbaijan Airlines crash represents a chilling watershed moment in modern conflict—where electronic warfare techniques like GPS spoofing become deadly realities. This incident dramatically illustrates how cybersecurity is no longer just about protecting databases and networks, but can directly impact human lives.
The 400% global increase in GPS spoofing attacks in early 2024 signals an alarming trend: electronic warfare is becoming increasingly normalized, and we must heed experts’ warnings about the danger it poses to us all.
Nicholls, C., Darya Tarasova, Tayir, H., & Liebermann, O. (2024, December 27). Azerbaijan Airlines says plane crashed after “external interference” as questions mount over possible Russian involvement. https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/27/asia/azerbaijan-airlines-crash-intl/index.html
Nicholls, C., Tayir, H., & Liebermann, O. (2024, December 26). Black boxes of downed Azerbaijani jet recovered as questions mount over Russian involvement. Here’s what we know. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/26/asia/kazakhstan-plane-crash-questions-intl/index.html
Kovalenko, A. (2024, December 26). During the flight, the fuselage was pierced, and the aircraft systems were damaged by the explosion of an air defense missile with shrapnel. Everything is well-documented and clearly captured. X (Formerly Twitter); Head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council’s Center for Countering Disinformation. https://x.com/AndriKovalenko/status/1872236652363436213
Russia “guilty” over downed plane: Azerbaijan president [Internet]. CNA. 2024. Available from: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/azerbaijan-airlines-crash-president-russia-guilty-4840346
Perpetua, A. (2024, December 26). UA map. Ukrdailyupdate.com. https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=43.146677&lng=45.494621&z=8&d=20082&c=1&l=0
Varley L. Black Box Data Analysis Begins in Brazil After Azerbaijan Airlines Crash [Internet]. AviationSource News. 2025. Available from: https://aviationsourcenews.com/black-box-data-analysis-begins-in-brazil-after-azerbaijan-airlines-crash/
ВЧК-ОГПУ (VChk-OGPU). “My plane is losing control” [Internet]. Telegram. 2024 [cited 2024 Dec 28]. Available from: https://t.me/vchkogpu/53591
Расшифровка переговоров пилотов разбившегося самолёта AZAL с диспетчерами [Internet]. Baza.io. 2025 [cited 2025 Jan 27]. Available from: https://baza.io/posts/39f8e832-8790-408a-add1-3c3679a14dd1
GPS Spoofing Working Group. (2024, September 6). GPS Spoofing: Final Report. OPS Group. https://ops.group/dashboard/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GPS-Spoofing-Final-Report-OPSGROUP-WG-OG24.pdf
Morton, A. (2024a). Russia military near downed Azerbaijani flight 12/25/24 - Google My Maps. Google My Maps. https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?hl=en&mid=1U2ivWVSef9xbPL88gywD068mRs9RUBY&ll=43.57508398020455%2C45.75121035273332&z=10
Channel News Asia. (2024, December 26). Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashes in Kazakhstan, killing 38. YouTube; Channel News Asia.
Stewart W. Horror plane crash suspicions as new footage shows “bullet holes” in aircraft [Internet]. The Mirror. 2024. Available from: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/mystery-over-deadly-plane-crash-34375499
@_Elmir_S. X (formerly Twitter). 2025. Available from: https://x.com/_Elmir_S/status/1871899387447963892
Petchenik I. Azerbaijan Airlines E190 crashes near Aktau | Flightradar24 Blog [Internet]. Flightradar24 Blog. 2024. Available from: https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/azerbaijan-airlines-e190-crashes-near-aktau/
Mesa J. Pilot Explains Heroic Actions on Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 That Saved Lives [Internet]. Newsweek. 2024. Available from: https://www.newsweek.com/heroes-azerbaijan-air-flight-8243-2006782
Morton, A. (2024, December 26). Theory: Confused by GPS spoofing, Russian missiles downed Azerbaijan flight J28243 as it turned west to Grozny. https://www.datawrapper.de/_/jOvcC/